The world has reached a pivotal moment as threats and opportunities from climate system tipping points accelerate, a new report shows. A tipping point occurs when a small change sparks an often rapid and irreversible transformation, and the effects can be positive or negative. The Global Tipping Points Report – the most comprehensive assessment of tipping points ever conducted – says humanity is currently on a disastrous trajectory. The speed of fossil fuel phase out and growth of zero-carbon solutions will now determine the future of billions of people.
The report, supported by academics from The Open University, says current global governance is inadequate for the scale of the challenge and makes six key recommendations to change course fast, including coordinated action to trigger positive tipping points.
Based on an assessment of 26 negative Earth system tipping points, the report concludes ‘business as usual’ is no longer possible – with rapid changes to nature and societies already happening, and more coming.
With global warming now on course to breach 1.5°C, at least five Earth system tipping points are likely to be triggered – including the collapse of major ice sheets and widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs. And as Earth system tipping points multiply, there is a risk of catastrophic, global-scale loss of capacity to grow staple crops.
The report was produced by an international team of more than 200 researchers including, Dr Ivan Sudakow and Dr Pallavi Anand from The Open University, coordinated by the University of Exeter, in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund.
Dr Ivan Sudakow, was part of an international team exploring tipping points arising from the cryosphere, an integral part of Earth’s system increasingly susceptible to climate change due to rapid melting.
Dr Sudakow said:
“From the initial introduction of the term ‘tipping point’ in the context of Earth’s system, it took a significant span of 15 years to see this concept reflected in an expert report. This time gap highlights the critical need to perceive the Earth as a highly complex and interconnected global system.”
Dr Anand, an expert in paleoclimates and monsoons was invited to lead scientific research review in the report on changes within tropical monsoon systems.
Dr Anand highlighted that the report should encourage further urgent research evaluation into Earth’s interacting tipping systems to better understand their effects on Earth system:
“This report highlights effects of tipping systems interactions and their potential for a possible, but highly uncertain, cascade. Robust evidence is urgently needed to assess speculative tipping elements such as Indian Summer Monsoon and their interactions with other tipping elements/systems to understand stablishing or destabilising effects. A destabilising effect could impact individual tipping element and through interactions could destabilise the Earth system. If not addressed urgently, they could present serious threat for humanity.”
Calling for reinforcements
Without urgent action to halt the climate and ecological crisis, societies will be overwhelmed as the natural world comes apart.
Alternatively, emergency global action – accelerated by leaders meeting now at COP28 – can harness positive tipping points and steer us towards a thriving, sustainable future.
The report lays out a blueprint for doing this, and says bold, coordinated policies could trigger positive tipping points across multiple sectors including energy, transport, and food.
A cascade of positive tipping points would save millions of lives, billions of people from hardship, trillions of dollars in climate-related damage, and begin restoring the natural world upon which we all depend.
On the need for further action, Dr Anand commented:
“This report presents current state of knowledge of scientific research with priorities for funders, institutions as well as scientists to advance knowledge about Earth’s tipping systems. A targeted research approach of data collection and integration with models is needed to gain robust understanding about Earth’s tipping elements, their interactions and effects of a potential tipping cascade.”
Kelly Levin, Chief of Science, Data and Systems Change for the Bezos Earth Fund, said:
“Climate change is the defining issue of our time; it is essential that we advance the science on global tipping points to address the threats and opportunities ahead.
“The path we choose now will determine the future of humanity, and this extraordinary report sets out the Earth system tipping points we need to prevent, the governance we need to urgently implement, and critically the positive tipping points we need to trigger to transform our society and world.
“Solving the climate and nature crises will require major transitions across most multiple sectors – from shifting diets to restoring forests to phasing out the internal combustion engine.
“Given the required scale of action, we must target the most beneficial positive tipping points so that change takes off in a way that is unstoppable.”
Dr Sudakow added:
“The report brings to the forefront the collective responsibility we all share in shaping our planet’s future. The concept of a tipping point – where minor changes in one area can trigger profound, global shifts – is a vital consideration for both stakeholders and policymakers.”
Parts of the Global Tipping Points Report will be published in a special issue of the journal Earth System Dynamics.
