Professor of Politics & International Studies at The Open University Simon Usherwood outlines the vote of no confidence in the House of Commons on Monday June 6 2022 and what it could mean for Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
How will Tory MPs vote?
The process of a no confidence vote in the Conservative party might be familiar from the December 2018 vote on Theresa May’s leadership. Each Tory MP gets one vote, in secret, and if the party leader doesn’t secure a majority then they have to resign. With 359 seats in the Commons, Johnson will need 180 votes, and might feel that the approximately 170 MPs with government roles will have an interest in backing him, making it quite likely he’ll get through this. However, the secret ballot means that individuals might well decide this is their best chance to move Johnson out and move themselves up, so we might assume that it won’t just be those who’ve pushed for a vote today who will be against Johnson.
So is Boris Johnson unlikely to lose?
Right now, it looks like there’s not enough public dissatisfaction among MPs to get to 181 votes against him. However, we’ve been in such situations before (for example, May didn’t last very long after her success). The key question is how many are willing to vote against Johnson.
If the size of the rebellion is much past 100, then it will raise questions about his leadership and the unity of the party. With two by-elections coming in the next fortnight, losses there could reignite questions about how much of an electoral liability he is. This is particularly important, given Johnson’s lack of natural constituency within the party and the extent to which his credentials rest on reaching the parts of the electorate that others cannot.
Who is going to replace him if he does go?
This is a hardy perennial of political debate and given my previous track record it’s best not to offer any firm ideas! Right now, there isn’t a clear front-runner, especially given Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s tarnished image of late, so we might expect a lot of people putting themselves forward for consideration.
Previous occasions suggest that the party likes to react to who has come before, so candidates with reputations as serious, professional managers might well fancy their chances: the Jeremy Hunts of this world, for example. For now though, most look like they are keeping their powder dry until Sir Graham Brady announces the results tonight.
