It’s three years since Brexit so we asked professor of foreign policy and international relations Jamie Gaskarth to look back to see what has been achieved.
Prof Jamie Gaskarth
Before Brexit, Britain was in a uniquely favourable position in global terms. Its closest ally, the United States, was the most powerful military actor in the world.
Britain was also a member of the European Union and its single market, enjoying free trade across the continent. Yet, this led to complacency. British foreign policy suffered strategic drift, often side-lined by allies keen to speak to the EU and particularly Germany.
Meanwhile, the EU had failed badly in dealing with the various crises of the 2010s, from Greece’s debt problems, to migration, to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Economic and political power was predicted to shift to the Indo-Pacific. Three of the four largest economies in the world in 2050 were expected to be from the region, with China and India first and second and Indonesia fourth.
Logical for Britain to be flexible
In this changing geopolitical landscape, there was a logic for Britain to adopt a more flexible approach, free itself of the constraints of EU membership (albeit loose ones in the foreign policy domain) and pursue a more dynamic global foreign policy.
In many ways, this has come to pass. The UK is a key figure in the new AUKUS network between Australia, the UK and US, sharing nuclear technology and forging closer diplomatic links.
It has applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a major trading agreement, as part of its ‘tilt’ to the Indo-Pacific region.
UK-Japan relations have flourished in the military and security realm, with plans to co-build next-generation fighter aircraft with Italy under the Global Combat Air Programme.
Britain the most decisive European power re Ukraine
Britain has been arguably the most decisive European power when it comes to its response to Ukraine, providing military and economic aid as well as diplomatic support.
It has also been notably bold in its policies toward China. Rather than quietly pursuing better relations with the country as a replacement for the loss of EU trade, British politicians have been stern critics of Chinese policies on Hong Kong and their treatment of the Uighur people in Xinjiang province.
In addition, we have reconsidered the risk of allowing China to buy into critical infrastructure projects with major security implications.
In that sense, Brexit has finally woken British diplomats and politicians from their slumber and forced them to think strategically again.
Diplomatic fall outs
There have been diplomatic fall outs, with the US siding with Ireland and the EU over Northern Ireland and France bruised from being shut out of its submarine deal with Australia.
Britain also lost its seat on the International Court of Justice for the first time since 1946. There is an argument that you didn’t need the shock of Brexit to do most of these things (though sometimes, only a major change in a country’s position in the world can compel it to reconsider old habits and ways of thinking.)
The Brexit process has undermined some of its original logic. Rather than being evidence of Britain’s status as a beacon of democracy and the rule of law, it has meant parliament being sidelined and international law openly flouted over the Northern Ireland protocol.
What Britain needs to do now
For Brexit to be a foreign policy success, Britain needs to hang on to its sense of dynamism, but it also must be more pragmatic when it comes to its relations with Europe. There are difficult political and economic headwinds emerging.
Jacob Ress-Mogg’s Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill would be a pointless act of self-harm, further dividing us from our main trading partners and stripping away many rights that Britain fought for as an EU member.
Brexit is done. It has shaken off the cobwebs of British foreign policy. If internal and external divisions are to heal, the Brexiteers would do well to remember Churchill’s exhortation “In victory, magnanimity”.
Picture credit: Pixelbliss for Shutterstock
This story was also published in the Daily Express comment pages
